Who will finish 3rd in the Premier League 2018/19?
- Arsenal
- Chelsea
- Man United
- Tottenham
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Okay guys, so before the Manchester United – Liverpool game, I spent a bit of time setting up a little document with some numbers and predictions for the rest of the season for the 4 clubs trailing behind City and Liverpool.
I listed each of their remaining PL opponents, and my predicted outcome in each game. Where I listed more than 1 outcome, I did it in order based on what I think is the more likely outcome.
I think Man United will get the 3rd spot in the end, as the perfect love story with Solskjær seems to come true.
Underneath the images I will list most of my reasoning for the choices I made in the predictions where the teams lose points.
<span style=”text-decoration: underline;”>Please tell me what YOU think is gonna happen! Who do you think will get the 3rd place and why? Do you agree/disagree with anything? Let us know! </span>
PS: Keep in mind this was made on February 23rd, AFTER the Burnley – Spurs game, so the ‘LOST’ there is the actual outcome without a prediction.
Away games to Man City and Liverpool are games I count as losses for everyone. Anything else will be a surprise/upset, and I don’t see it happening.
I give Chelsea a slight home ground advantage to Spurs, while I give Spurs a bigger “home” ground advantage to Arsenal.
Bournemouth – Tottenham draw: Bournemouth has been a good home team this season, with only 3 losses out of 14 home games. Tottenham just lost to Burnley. Bournemouth can take a point at home.
Fun fact: Tottenham are likely to set a new record for least amount of draws in a Premier League season ever.Wolverhampton is a very even team, and have only conceded 3 goals in 3 games (4-3 Leicester, 2-3 Spurs, 0-3 Man City), and less in the rest of their games. They drew on Emirates, and won at home to Chelsea.
Man United will face Wolverhampton in the FA cup on the 16th of March, and in the PL on April 6th. I give Man United the edge in the PL, as they’ll learn what Wolverhampton can do and prepare for the PL game.
I give Man United a slight edge on Man City and Liverpool, as they will play on Old Trafford, and thus my prediction order is Draw, Win, Loss in both. Man City are looking very strong, but it’s a local derby where anything can happen.
Man United is on a roll. With a win against Liverpool, they’re more likely to challenge Spurs for 3rd than defending 4th against Chelsea and Arsenal.
Man United can still get through the CL, but it’s unlikely. They save themselves compared to Chelsea and Arsenal, and have recently beaten both in London. Man United are clear favourites against both.
Arsenal are facing Rennes in France March 7th, and in London on March 14th. Man United will visit the Emirates March 10th. Tough schedule for Arsenal.
Man United have the PSG game March 6th, which gives them 1 more day to recover, while they don’t have a return game the following week.Arsenal have lost 5 away games this season, and they’re most likely gonna lose away to Tottenham.
Arsenal started their away games with 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. Over the last 6 away games, they’ve won 1, drawn 1, lost 4. Only 3 teams have been worse than Arsenal away from home over their last 6 away games.
Their 1 away win was to Huddersfield (2-1). The 1 away draw was to Brighton. Before the away win to Huddersfield on February 9th, Arsenal hadn’t won an away game since November 25th.
Everton has been better at home than Arsenal have been away. Arsenal has only won 5 of 13 away games. Everton can take a point at home against Arsenal.
Burnley are on a roll. They’ve won 3 and drawn 3 of their last 6 games, and are the 4th best team over the last 6 rounds. They drew away to Man United and won at home to Tottenham, so they can take a point at home to Arsenal.
Arsenal are through in the Europa League. Travelling and more games where they need to focus will tear on them. They will likely go through the next round as well.Chelsea are more likely to draw against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea just lost to Man United on Stamford Bridge, and they’re struggling to score goals against upper half teams (0 goals in 2019).
Chelsea before Christmas: 14-11 goal difference in 9 games against top half teams, with 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses. 5 home games, 4 away, and they’ve only won 4.
Chelsea after Christmas : 7-13 total goal difference in 6 games. 0-12 goal difference against top half teams in 3 games. 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses. 3 home games, 3 away games.
Over the last 6 games only 5 teams have worse results than Chelsea. Only 5 teams scored less goals. Only 3 teams have a worse goal difference. Only 2 teams conceded more.
Chelsea have lost points in 6 of 13 away games this season.
Chelsea’s total away results are about equal to Everton’s home results. Everton can take a point at home to Chelsea.
Chelsea are through in the Europa League. Travelling and more games where they need to focus will tear on them. They will likely go through the next round as well.
Chelsea are home to Dynamo Kyiv March 7th, before Wolverhampton visits Stamford Bridge on March 10th. Then Chelsea will face Dynamo Kyiv in Ukraine March 14th. Tough schedule.
